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The Counterfeiters, A Complex Movie Filled With Moral Gotchas And The Prisoners' Dilema

Sunday, September 7, 2008, 8:25am
game theory, the counterfeiters

The Counterfeiters is an emotionally complex -- and often horrifying -- film about the prisoners' dilemma (literally and figuratively). A superbly acted and scripted cast of characters play out their intense moral conundrums: supporting the Nazis by printing currency for them; saving their lives while outside their compounds others are dying; and other situations in which solidarity and self interest lock horns, with no easy answers.

Ultimately, The Counterfeiters is a story about the way that fascism takes hold -- the way that Naziism was only made possible by all people being, in some small way, complicit; by choosing to save themselves instead of refusing to allow scapegoating, fear and war to rise.

I want to see this, sounds interesting.

Game Theory And The War In Iraq

Monday, October 8, 2007, 1:21pm
war on terror, never ending war, game theory, economics

Economics professors have a standard game they use to demonstrate how apparently rational decisions can create a disastrous result. They call it a "dollar auction." The rules are simple. The professor offers a dollar for sale to the highest bidder, with only one wrinkle: the second-highest bidder has to pay up on their losing bid as well. Several students almost always get sucked in. The first bids a penny, looking to make 99 cents. The second bids 2 cents, the third 3 cents, and so on, each feeling they have a chance at something good on the cheap. The early stages are fun, and the bidders wonder what possessed the professor to be willing to lose some money.

The problem surfaces when the bidders get up close to a dollar. After 99 cents the last vestige of profitability disappears, but the bidding continues between the two highest players. They now realize that they stand to lose no matter what, but that they can still buffer their losses by winning the dollar. They just have to outlast the other player. Following this strategy, the two hapless students usually run the bid up several dollars, turning the apparent shot at easy money into a ghastly battle of spiraling disaster.

Theoretically, there is no stable outcome once the dynamic gets going. The only clear limit is the exhaustion of one of the player's total funds. In the classroom, the auction generally ends with the grudging decision of one player to "irrationally" accept the larger loss and get out of the terrible spiral. Economists call the dollar auction pattern an irrational escalation of commitment. We might also call it the war in Iraq.

...

Oh yes, there is one other way out of the spiral — in the classroom, if you allow some kind of negotiated settlement between the two sides, they can sometimes agree to split the dollar and halt the contest. Should we pursue this kind of thing in the Middle East? Of course not, we are told. That would involve talking to the enemy, and we all know that such dialogue would only serve to reward their evil actions. Victory is the only acceptable result. Back to the auction. Let the surge continue.

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